منابع مشابه
Ensemble Forecasts Using Rank Histograms
4 Any decision making process that relies on a probabilistic forecast of future events necessarily 5 requires a calibrated forecast. This paper proposes new methods for empirically assessing 6 forecast calibration in a multivariate setting where the probabilistic forecast is given by an 7 ensemble of equally probable forecast scenarios. Multivariate properties are mapped to a single 8 dimension...
متن کاملPrecipitation and temperature ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts
Papers published in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions are under open-access review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Abstract Introduction Conclusions References Tables Figures ◭ ◮ ◭ ◮ Back Close Full Screen / Esc Printer-friendly Version Interactive Discussion EGU Abstract A procedure is presented to construct ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts of pr...
متن کاملTesting new ensemble forecasts of solar irradiance
The increment of solar energy production requires an accurate estimation of surface solar irradiance. A forecast of surface solar irradiance allows estimate the energy production, i.e., to minimize the fluctuations in the electric grid supply. In this work a numerical weather forecast model provides surface solar radiation estimations over a coastal region with changeable weather and typically ...
متن کاملWeighted Likelihood Ratio Scores for Evaluating Density Forecasts in Tails∗
We propose and evaluate several new scoring rules based on likelihood ratios, for comparing density forecasts in the context of VaR modelling and expected loss estimation. Our approach is motivated by the observation that some existing weighted scoring rules tend to favour fat-tailed predictive densities over thin-tailed predictive densities. Rather than restricting the weight functions, we imp...
متن کاملMixture EMOS model for calibrating ensemble forecasts of wind speed
Ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) is a statistical tool for post-processing forecast ensembles of weather variables obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models in order to produce calibrated predictive probability density functions. The EMOS predictive probability density function is given by a parametric distribution with parameters depending on the ensemble foreca...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
سال: 2013
ISSN: 0035-9009
DOI: 10.1002/qj.2270